The EU is in the throes of a political crisis over the approval of a €1.8 trillion budget, which has been vetoed by Hungary and Poland, over a rule of law mechanism linked to the budget in order to try to reverse what is widely acknowledged to be democratic backsliding in Central Europe. A September report by the European Commission found that democratic standards are facing significant deterioration, particularly in Hungary and Poland. The budget, which allocates payments 2021-2027, is seen to be one of the few means left for the EU to exert pressure on member states to implement reforms strengthening the rule of law or risk withdrawal of funding.
It might seem paradoxical that illiberal democracies and even authoritarianism can survive within a supranational political and economic grouping founded on democratic principles such as the EU. However, recent research has shown not only that is it possible for authoritarian enclaves to survive within the framework of the EU, but it is in many ways EU institutions themselves—particularly features such as non-conditional funding for states, transnational parties with insufficient domestic roots, and free movement acting as a safety valve—that gives sustenance to such authoritarianism.
Viktor Orban and the nationalist party he leads, Fidesz, have been at the forefront of a significant decline of democracy and rule of law in Hungary since 2010, when Orban was elected Prime Minister for the second time. Under his rule, the independence of the judiciary has been eviscerated, the media (especially in rural areas) is now owned predominantly by allies of Orban, and the electoral system has been systematically manipulated through gerrymandering and engineering of election rules (such as abolishing run-offs) so Orban’s opponents have disproportionate hurdles to overcome in order to gain electoral victory. In Poland too, the rule of law has also been significantly curtailed, with the ruling Law and Justice Party’s leader Jaroslaw Kaczynski packing the constitutional court with partisans in order to render it subservient.
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