The war in Ukraine is apparently a war between Russia and Ukraine. Even more importantly, it is a war between US-led NATO and Russia fought in Ukraine, because it wanted to join NATO. Its joining NATO, in Russia’s view, would have threatened its security just as in 1962 President Kennedy saw the Soviet missiles deployed in Cuba as a threat.
There can be a cease-fire in this war that started in February 2022 (and has an unknown grim toll) only when Moscow, Kiev, and Washington want it. However, since Ukraine is almost entirely dependent on NATO for weapons and money, it follows that there can be a cease-fire if Washington and Moscow want it. As of now, there is no sign that any of the three belligerents is keen on a cease-fire.
On the contrary, we are witnessing that there might be a rather steep escalation to a level where Moscow might seriously look at the nuclear option. Let us see how we reached this perilous situation.
Zelensky’s Kursk Incursion
On 6 August 2024 Ukrainian forces crossed into Russia’s Kursk Oblast- region with hardly any resistance from their adversaries. Ukraine has established a military administration over the 1000 sq.km area it has captured.
Why did Zelensky do that? He has given two motives, one more important than the other. By capturing Russian territory, for the first time after Hitler did it in 1941, Zelensky wanted to cause acute embarrassment to Putin and to raise the morale of Ukrainian military and people.
However, his calculation that Putin will be compelled to divert forces from elsewhere to take back the area captured has been disproved. Such diversion would have slowed down the Russian advance towards Pokrovsk, a strategically situated town in Donbas.
Zelensky has stated that eventually when talks take place, he would agree to vacate from Kursk—about 1000 sq.km—provided Russia vacates from the territory it has captured. We do not know whether Zelenski is serious. Russia has captured about 119,000 sq.km since February 2022.
There is a stronger motive for advancing into Kursk which Zelensky has recently mentioned: to demonstrate that there is no need to take Putin’s ‘red lines’ seriously. Zelensky has been demanding long-range weapons to strike deep into Russia as he believes that such strikes will compel Putin to ask for a cease-fire.
Zelensky’s Victory Plan
Zelenski is planning to go to New York, address the UN General Assembly, and to talk about his ‘victory plan’ to President Biden, Vice-President Harris, and former President Trump. Zelenski realizes that, should Trump win the election in November, Ukraine will have to seek a cease-fire on terms dictated by Russia.
Though Zelensky has not shared details about his ‘victory plan,’ we can well imagine what he has in mind: Strike deep into Russia, with long-range weapons supplied by the West, on a scale to compel Putin to ask for a cease-fire.
Zelenskyy has been asking for long-range weapons for a while. Till now he has got only UK’s Storm Shadows, and France’s SCALP, both with a range of 250 km. London and Paris will give the green signal to use these weapons only after Washington agrees for understandable reasons.
Zelensky is also eyeing American ATACMS (Army Tactical Missile Systems) with a range of 305 km deliverable by F-16 of which he has a dozen. He is also looking at JASSMs (Joint Air to Surface Stand-off Missiles) with a range of 230 km.
Biden’s Dilemma
The key questions are: Will he get these long-range weapons when he meets Biden? If he gets what might be the response of Putin?
Biden and UK Prime Minister Starmer were supposed to come out with an announcement on this matter when they met on 14 September. No announcement was made, and the White House has omitted any mention of this topic in its readout.
When asked questions on Ukraine at the joint press conference, Biden was rather testy. His spokesperson John Kirby had said even before Biden met Starmer that no change was expected. However, we cannot predict what might happen when Zelensky meets Biden. In the past whether on F-16 or Patriot air defence systems, Biden has changed his mind.
Putin’s Options
Let us look at what might be Putin’s response if Biden gives the green signal to Zelensky. Two days before the Biden-Starmer meeting, Putin made it clear that by permitting Ukraine to strike deep into Russia, NATO will be ‘directly’ fighting Russia; Moscow will take note of the changed situation and ‘take necessary steps.’
What can Putin do? His spokespersons have talked about hitting UK’s assets. Even more menacingly, Putin might resort to escalating the war by threatening to use tactical nuclear weapons. He might also carry out a nuclear test that Russia last did in 1990. As we know the nuclear weapon limitation treaties between Russia and US are not in force. It has been reported that Russian experts are urging Putin to revise Russia’s nuclear doctrine that already provides for use of nuclear weapons when Russia’s territorial integrity is threatened.
In any case, the coming weeks before the presidential election in the U S are critical. If Biden says no to Zelensky, Putin will go on destroying Ukraine’s power system and Ukrainians will have to face the coming winter without heating. Credible reports speak of the Ukrainian military being outnumbered and outgunned.
A Likely Scenario
There is another factor. Even with the long-range weapons Ukraine might not win. Russia has reportedly moved 90 per cent of its air bases that house bomber jets out of ATACMS range, U.S. and European military officials said, in anticipation that Ukraine could soon be allowed to fire the missiles across the border. [For further reading, do look up The Long-Range Weapons Ukraine Wants to Use on Russia, Explained – The New York Times (nytimes.com)]
Even if Biden says yes to Zelensky, the delivery of the weapons will take months. Germany has refused to part with its version of a long-range weapon—Tarus. Obviously, Germany sees a red line it should not cross.
Is Zelensky facing overwhelming odds? Is it time to talk?
Biden will have to think of his legacy and the impact of the decision he takes on Kamala Harris’ chances of winning the election when he meets with Zelensky.
In case Biden gives the green signal for the use of the weapons already supplied by France and the UK what will Putin do? He could threaten to use a mini-nuke against Ukraine. Biden will have to either ask Zelensky to stop the use of the weapons or issue a counter-threat to Putin.
If Putin is not deterred by such a counter-threat, Putin will have no choice but to carry out the threat. What will Biden do? Will he respond with a mini nuke? Whether he responds with a mini nuke or something bigger, keeping in mind the Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD) capability of the two, there could be a nuclear Armageddon.
The generation of 1962 had the wisdom to negotiate and resolve the dispute when the world was at the brink of a nuclear war. Sixty years later, diplomatic maturity seems absent among the leaders.
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