In early September 2026, the yield on the thirty-year US Treasury bond touched 5.33 per cent, its highest levelsince 2007. The timing was hostile: oil rallied on fears that the US-Iran war would turn the Strait of Hormuz closure into a prolonged, costlier disruption. At the same time, Deutsche Bank’s George Saravelos pointed to growing unease within the US administration over rising long-end Treasury yields. Bonds and equities slid in tandem as geopolitical shocks compounded worries over inflation, ballooning debt and the rising cost of servicing it.
Within days, Japan’s ten-year government bond (JGB) yield scaled heights unseen since 1996, France’s thirty-year yield hit its highest since the 2008 crisis, and Germany’s long bond touched territory last visited in 2011. Gold, the quintessential safe haven, retreated as rising Treasury yields raised the opportunity cost of holding an investment that generates no income. Across the world’s major sovereign-debt markets, borrowing costs were returning to levels that policymakers had almost forgotten.
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