The Bab el-Mandeb & The Growing Cost Of Geopolitical Risk

Ban-el-Mandeb-Madras-Courier
Representational image; public domain.
The Houthi threat to shut the Bab-el-Mandeb highlights how maritime insecurity can rapidly disrupt trade and energy markets.

Markets have become accustomed to geopolitical shocks. Yet some announcements resonate far beyond the battlefield. The latest came from Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthi movement, which declared that it would impose what it called a “maritime embargo” on Saudi Arabia by targeting Saudi vessels transiting the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. Whether the group possesses the capability to sustain such an operation remains uncertain. What is already clear, however, is that the threat has exposed the vulnerability of another critical artery of global commerce at a moment when the world’s energy and shipping networks are already under severe strain.

Saudi Arabia’s reaction was predictable. Its foreign ministry condemned the announcement in the strongest terms and pledged to take all necessary measures to protect the kingdom’s shipping. Such assurances are politically necessary but commercially insufficient. Shipping markets do not wait for missiles to strike before adjusting their calculations. Perceived risk is often enough to reshape trade flows, increase insurance premiums and persuade operators to reroute vessels.



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