One of the reasons the geopolitical, or realpolitik, approach to politics is widely reviled, is because arguments made from the perspective of national security function akin to trump cards that close down discussion and dissent, while realist practitioners disagree vehemently about what the correct strategy is in particular situations. This makes advocates of realpolitik look somewhat absurd, while at the same time exposing how they often act as illegitimate spoilers based on invalid arguments. Of course none of this is to deny the critical importance of national security for a nation, as it is this principle that functions to organise the defence of a state against external invasion and unwanted intervention.
The desire of India to want to counter China’s growing influence in its periphery (and particularly in Southeast Asia) through any means possible is a legitimate desire, given India’s national security is, in a real sense, threatened by China’s expansionist policies. This threat was amply demonstrated by the recent and dangerous Himalayan border standoff in Ladakh. However, what has emerged as India’s strategy to counter Chinese influence in Myanmar, namely to unconditionally appease the Burmese military to curry favour with them and hope they will allow India to maintain its influence there, is both a simplistic interpretation of geopolitical dictates, and liable to failure given it is mistaken in its fundamentals.
Rather than maintaining a studied silence on the issue, India should be publicly taking the stance that it supports the self-determination of the Burmese people—whether this means democracy or military dictatorship—but that such self-determination must be strictly free from interference and domination by China and, where relevant, the United States. India should also make continuing economic and military support for the military regime in Naypyidaw conditional on China not being allowed veto powers over any political decisions made in Myanmar. This approach allows India to avoid a series of damaging strategic mistakes. Any one of these mistakes either plays into China’s hands, or projects weakness on the international stage, dual dangers India must avoid.
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