In September, farmers in India were watching the skies with unusual anxiety. India’s rainfall was running well below normal after a weak monsoon start, leaving cotton, soybean, rice, maize and pulses exposed at a critical stage of growth.
The consequences reach beyond the farm. Weaker harvests mean lower rural incomes, higher food prices, and a difficult choice for policymakers over whether to restrict exports or increase imports. India may yet get enough rain to limit the damage. But the country is already providing an early glimpse of what happens when a warming world meets a powerful El Niño.
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