Pandemics are imagined as dramatic events that erupt without warning. However, their origins are far less conspicuous. In most years, scientists identify only two or three viruses that have never before been recorded in humans. That figure has remained consistent since the 1960s, even though advances in surveillance and genomic sequencing have transformed the speed with which pathogens can be detected.
Most viruses never become household names. Some are observed only once before disappearing from view, while others continue to circulate quietly in isolated animal populations or cause sporadic human infections. Only on rare occasions does the discovery of an unfamiliar virus herald an event that reshapes global health. HIV-1, identified in 1983 after years of undetected spread, and SARS-CoV-2, recognised in early 2020, stand apart as reminders that viruses can extend far beyond the laboratory where a pathogen is first identified.
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