Uttar Pradesh’s draft bill on population control, despite the widely recognised positive trend of demographic transition, found an echo among politicians of a particular hue. Many of them parroted the same lines, as if to create a chorus.
In India, a chorus, instead of being spontaneous, is usually orchestrated. It lends credence to the old saying: “if you have a hammer in your hand everything looks like a nail.” Is it the politician’s moment of tilting at the windmills based on poor perception and inferior understanding divorced from data, or only an attempt at brief feint for electoral dividends?
A coercive two-child norm as a precondition for government jobs, for eligibility in local elections, and for availing the benefits of various government schemes has never demonstrated its efficacy in controlling population. The National Family Health Survey (NFHS) of 2019, conducted by the Government of India, shows 24 out of 25 states and union territories have a total fertility rate below the net replacement rate which is 2.1. Such ham-handed measures contemplated now threatens to stall the progress achieved so far. It could lead to unintended consequences such as desertion in spousal relations and sex-selective abortion in a society yet to wean away from preferring a son. Going by the best practices and our experience in South India, better and longer education, healthcare facilities, access to contraception and exercise of agency by the female will reduce the number faster.
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