In the recently concluded German elections, the German political landscape was reshaped by a significant surge in support for both the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and the far-right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD).
Under the leadership of Friedrich Merz, the CDU secured around 28.5 per cent of the vote, while the AfD garnered 20.6 per cent, marking its most significant post-war result. The rise of these two parties has had profound implications for Germany’s future, particularly as they capitalised on the dissatisfaction with the incumbent government led by Chancellor Olaf Scholz.
The CDU’s resurgence can be traced to several key factors. Public discontent with Scholz’s policies, particularly in areas such as immigration, economic management, and foreign relations, was a major driving force behind the party’s rise. Merz’s leadership offered a clear alternative to Scholz’s administration, appealing to voters seeking stability and returning to traditional values.
The CDU’s emphasis on economic revitalisation and tax reforms resonated with a population concerned about stagnation and rising inflation. Moreover, the party’s commitment to European unity and a more independent stance from the United States attracted voters who felt Germany’s international policies needed recalibration.
At the same time, the AfD’s remarkable rise reflected a complex interplay of social and political dynamics, particularly in the eastern regions of Germany. The AfD became the largest party in all five former East German states, indicating deep-seated economic disparities and a sense of neglect among eastern Germans.
The party’s anti-immigration rhetoric resonated with voters who felt their cultural identity was threatened and believed that traditional German values were being eroded. Moreover, the AfD’s criticism of the European Union and its policies appealed to those sceptical of Germany’s role within the EU framework. The party presented itself as an outsider challenging the political establishment, further solidifying its appeal among voters disillusioned with the status quo.
The surge in support for the CDU and the AfD has had major implications for Germany’s political future. Merz’s CDU, with its strong showing, is now in a position to form a government. However, the AfD’s increased presence in the Bundestag complicates coalition-building efforts, as no mainstream party will likely align with it.
The AfD’s rise has also sparked concerns about the normalisation of far-right politics in Germany, with many fearing that the party’s influence could embolden extremist elements and challenge Germany’s commitment to democratic values.
This surge in right-wing populism reflects broader trends across Europe, where nationalism and suspicion towards traditional political elites are gaining traction.
Meanwhile, Olaf Scholz’s loss in the 2025 election can be attributed to several factors, ranging from his handling of international crises to domestic issues. One of the most significant sources of frustration was his handling of the war in Ukraine.
While Germany supported Ukraine in its fight against Russia, Scholz was criticised for being slow to act and hesitant to provide military aid. Early in the conflict, Scholz’s government was reluctant to send heavy weaponry, such as tanks, to Ukraine.
This cautious approach alienated both the Ukrainian government and Germany’s European allies, who expected a more decisive stance. Critics argued that Scholz’s reluctance to act boldly during a crisis damaged Germany’s leadership role in Europe and made the country appear indecisive.
Domestically, Scholz’s government struggled to address economic challenges, particularly inflation and rising energy prices, which were exacerbated by the war. While his administration introduced measures to mitigate the effects of rising energy costs, such as subsidies and price caps, many Germans felt these measures were insufficient and poorly communicated.
The government’s reliance on temporary solutions like coal and natural gas to address the energy gap during the crisis raised concerns about the long-term direction of Germany’s energy transition. These economic challenges contributed to a sense that Scholz was not doing enough to protect the interests of ordinary citizens, further eroding his popularity.
Scholz’s coalition government—composed of the Social Democrats (SPD), the Greens, and the Free Democrats (FDP)—faced frequent infighting, which created a sense of policy paralysis. Scholz struggled to mediate between his coalition partners’ often conflicting priorities, leading to gridlock on key issues.
This disunity within his government made it difficult for him to present a coherent and unified vision for Germany’s future, contributing to public disillusionment. Many voters were frustrated by the lack of decisive action on issues such as climate change, economic recovery, and national security.
The failure to effectively communicate government policies also played a crucial role in Scholz’s downfall. Although his government was working to modernise Germany’s energy infrastructure, the lack of clear communication about long-term goals and short-term solutions left many voters confused and uninformed. This opacity contributed to a sense that Scholz and his government were out of touch with ordinary citizens’ concerns.
Scholz’s leadership style, often pragmatic and cautious, also contributed to his electoral loss. His more reserved, technocratic approach made it difficult for him to connect with voters emotionally, especially in times of crisis. While his leadership was seen as competent, it lacked the charisma and empathy to inspire confidence during challenging times.
In contrast, his opponents, such as Merz, could better project a sense of vision and decisiveness, which resonated more strongly with the electorate.
Finally, the rise of the AfD, with its populist, anti-establishment rhetoric, further compounded Scholz’s troubles. The AfD’s ability to tap into growing discontent over immigration, cultural identity, and dissatisfaction with the political establishment helped propel the party’s surge, particularly in the eastern states.
Its message of nationalism and scepticism towards the European Union appealed to voters who felt alienated by Scholz’s administration and the political elite.
Under Merz, the CDU also benefitted from widespread dissatisfaction with Scholz’s leadership. Positioned as a more stable and decisive alternative, the CDU presented a vision of economic recovery, national security, and a return to traditional values.
While Merz’s agenda was not without its critics, the party capitalised on the perception that Scholz’s government was directionless and unable to address Germany’s pressing issues, particularly those related to the economy and foreign policy.
Olaf Scholz’s loss in the 2025 German federal election can be attributed to his handling of the war in Ukraine, economic challenges, coalition infighting, leadership style, and communication failures. These factors, coupled with the rise of right-wing populism, created a perfect storm of disillusionment that led voters to turn to the CDU and AfD in search of a new direction.
As Germany grapples with the implications of these election results, it is clear that the political landscape has been forever altered, with far-reaching consequences for both domestic and foreign policy.
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