In a global economy already strained by inflation, geopolitical rivalry, and post-pandemic recovery challenges, a new threat looms large: trade policy uncertainty. The resurgence of protectionist measures—ranging from export restrictions and sanctions to abrupt tariff hikes and sudden exits from trade agreements—has injected fresh volatility into international trade. Nowhere is this more evident than in Asia, where major economies like China and India are feeling the ripple effects of an increasingly unpredictable trading system.
According to the Global Trade Alert initiative from the University of St. Gallen, 2024 saw 429 trade-related policy interventions worldwide, of which 323 were considered discriminatory. This steady drift away from multilateralism has not only eroded trust in the rules-based trading order but also unnerved businesses and investors, who are finding it harder to plan for the future amid growing trade frictions.
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