It is no secret that the Moon’s gravitational pull generates the tidal force that results in periodic high tides and low tides. Although this is no mystery, the effects of the Moon on surface water are mystical. A study by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) revealed the Moon’s ‘wobble,’ which will likely contribute to surging coastal flooding in the 2030s.
High-tide floods — often known as nuisance floods or sunny day floods — are already a common issue in many towns along the Atlantic and Gulf coastlines of the United States. In 2019, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) recorded more than 600 such floods.
Depending on your vantage point, the Moon usually travels in circles and ovals around the Earth in its orbit. But something more is driving those rotations and revolutions — a so-called ‘wobble.’ The Moon’s orbital plane is slightly inclined compared to the Earth’s, resulting in the so-called wobble effect. According to recent research, the phenomenon is predicted to cause greater floods on Earth in the middle of the next decade.
According to NASA research that takes into account all known oceanic and astronomical causes of floods, the alignment of increasing sea levels with a moon cycle would lead coastal towns to begin a decade of significant rises in flood numbers starting in the mid-2030s.
High tides will often surpass established flooding thresholds throughout the nation. Furthermore, depending on the locations of the Moon, Earth, and Sun, the floods may occur in clusters lasting for even months. When the Moon and Earth align with each other and the Sun in specific ways, the resulting gravitational influence and the ocean’s corresponding response could cause flooding in cities almost daily.
Yes, scary, indeed! However, a wobble is not an obscure phenomenon; it is something we have been aware of for centuries. The wobble often causes a rise or fall in the sea level, depending on weather and geography. ‘There’s nothing new or dangerous about the wobble,’ NASA said as they tried to reassure the panicked public.
Then why are scientists alarmed at the next wobble? The answer is climate change. Oceans are rising due to global warming and climate change, and the rise in temperatures from greenhouse gas emissions has already significantly impacted flood risk.
The pull of the Moon’s gravity on a spinning Earth is primarily responsible for high tides on our planet. Most beaches experience two high tides every 24 hours. The Moon orbits the Earth approximately once a month, and its orbit is slightly inclined. The Moon’s orbital plane around the Earth has a five-degree inclination relative to the Earth’s orbital plane around the Sun. As a result, the path of the Moon’s orbit seems to change over time, with a complete cycle — often referred to as a nodal cycle — taking 18.6 years.
The Moon’s gravitational pull arrives from such an angle at certain times during the cycle that it yanks one of the day’s two high tides a little higher at the cost of the other. This does not imply that the Moon is trembling or that its gravity is tugging on our seas any more or less than normal. The first wobble was reported in 1728; however, the present report stands out because the combined effect with rising sea levels is alarming.
According to William V. Sweet — an oceanographer from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and one of the authors of the research — the ocean is getting close to the brim in several coastal communities due to years of sea-level rise. The study investigated the interaction of many factors that push and pull ocean levels.
High-tide flooding caused by climate change is projected to break records with increasing frequency over the next decade, and forecasters must contend with a plethora of data, including weather patterns, astronomical occurrences, and regional tidal variance. The Moon wobble contributes to the noise but has always had a slow, steady beat.
For another decade, the rise of global sea levels will continue. The rising waters, exacerbated by the moon cycle, will result in a surge in flood numbers. Only the extreme northern coasts will be spared for another decade or more due to long-term geological processes.
The Moon is now in the tide-amplifying phase of its cycle. However, sea levels along most coasts have not increased to the point where high tides routinely exceed flooding limits even with this lunar assistance. It will be a different scenario when the cycle returns to raise tides in the mid-2030s.
Because each area is unique, the wobbling effect may cause high tide levels at a beach to fluctuate by one or two inches throughout its lengthy cycle. It may seem insignificant with these numbers; however, in some circumstances, it may make a significant difference.
‘It just kind of raises the baseline. And the more your baseline is raised, the smaller weather event you need to cause a flooding event,’ says Philip R. Thomson, the director of the Sea Level Center at the University of Hawaii and the lead author of the study. ‘If we know what’s going on, then we shouldn’t be complacent,’ he added in his interview with the New York Times. ‘It’s important to realise that at the mid-2030s point, where the switch flips and the natural cycle seems to amplify the rate of sea level rise, then we are going to see a rapid change.’
The researchers analysed 89 tidal gauge sites to discover these flood tipping points. They formed a new framework of statistical data that mapped NOAA’s widely used sea-level rise scenarios and flooding thresholds. They used the data regarding the times those thresholds were exceeded annually, astronomical cycles, and statistical representations of other known tide-affecting processes, such as El Niño climatic patterns.
The team has forecasted the outcomes till 2080. The study’s results will be valuable for coastal urban planners, who may be more concerned with planning for severe occurrences than high-tide floods. Thompson’s high-tide flood tool is already available on the NASA team’s sea-level site. It is a valuable resource for researchers and the general public. The flood tool will soon be updated with the results of this research.
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