India’s heatwaves are deadly. They will have catastrophic consequences. In the second week of June 2023, over 100 people died in the Ballia district, and over 133 died in the Deoria district in Uttar Pradesh (UP), India, due to a severe heat wave. The state administration is in denial; they refuse to accept that an extreme heatwave caused the deaths.
As The Economist puts it, ‘the consequences of climate change will be horrific for the Indo-Gangetic Plain.’ However, this is not specific to UP or India alone. Global warming threatens life across the planet.
Global average sea and air temperatures are spiking in 2023. This is even before the onset of El Niño.
Now, the United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (USNOAA) confirmed the onset of El Niño; Scientists are expressing heightened concern, and countries across the globe are preparing for the impending onslaught of extreme weather phenomena.
As The Guardian puts it, the planet is being hit with ‘a double whammy of global heating in 2023. On top of the inexorable rise in global temperature caused by greenhouse gas emissions is an emerging El Niño.’
2016, when the world witnessed the last El Niño, was the hottest year ever recorded; now, some reports suggest that the El Niño event this year is likely to surpass the critical threshold of 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels outlined in the Paris Agreement.
What is El Nino Phenomenon?
El Nino is a large-scale ocean-atmosphere climate phenomenon that manifests as periodic warming of sea surface temperatures across the central and east-central Equatorial Pacific region. During a typical year, the Pacific experiences a consistent east-to-west flow of trade winds, propelling warm surface water towards the western Pacific, near Indonesia and Australia. This natural phenomenon facilitates the upwelling process, wherein cold, nutrient-rich water from the deep ocean rises to the surface along the coast of South America.
The occurrence of an El Niño event disrupts this customary pattern. The trade winds weaken – or even reverse – causing a disturbance in the natural flow. Consequently, the warm surface waters, usually confined to the western Pacific, retreat eastward and accumulate along the coasts of South America. This alteration diminishes the upwelling of cold, nutrient-rich water, decreasing productivity within the coastal marine ecosystems. The impacts of El Niño extend well beyond the confines of the Pacific region.
Even before the onset of the recent El Niño event, global sea surface temperatures in May were approximately 0.1°C higher than any previously recorded. This temperature increase can significantly impact weather patterns and intensify extreme weather events worldwide.
During the winter season, it brings warmer weather conditions to the Indian subcontinent. Conversely, in the summer, it disrupts the monsoon season, leading to inadequate rainfall and drier conditions.
These alterations in weather patterns can have significant implications for agricultural practices, water resources, and overall ecosystems.
El Nino Impact on Agriculture Sector & India’s Economy
El Niño profoundly impacts India’s agricultural sector, particularly because a substantial portion of its farming practices still rely on rainfall. Around fifty per cent of the country’s net sown area depends on the monsoon rains, which irrigate crops and replenish water reservoirs.
From June to September, the summer monsoon season contributes a significant eighty per cent of the total annual rainfall, aligning perfectly with the primary crop-growing season known as Kharif.
This season is crucial in producing crops like rice, pulses, oilseeds, cotton, and sugarcane. In regions with limited access to irrigation facilities, the dependence on a normal monsoon becomes even more pronounced.
Despite agriculture contributing only approximately eighteen per cent to India’s Gross Value Added (GVA), it employs nearly half of the country’s workforce, according to Niti Aayog, 2022. The decrease in rainfall caused by El Niño can lead to crop failure, water scarcity, inflation in food prices, reduced yields, and consequently, lower incomes for farmers, affecting millions of people’s livelihoods.
India’s food security faces significant challenges during the wheat harvest, emphasizing the agricultural sector’s vulnerability to El Niño-induced disruptions.
India’s inflation outlook could deteriorate further if there is an increase in global commodity prices. A study by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in 2016 reveals that the El Niño weather phenomenon has diverse economic impacts across different regions and can significantly influence global commodity prices, including crude oil.
Countries such as Australia, a major wheat exporter, and Indonesia, a significant rice producer and palm oil exporter, experience adverse effects from El Niño, which can lead to higher food prices in international markets. Consequently, this could exert a negative impact on inflation within India as well.
Several sectors, including FMCG, auto (two-wheelers, three-wheelers, and tractors), and agrochemicals, may experience the impact of subdued rural demand. Consequently, this could exert downward pressure on overall GDP growth.
In a recent study published in the journal Science, the occurrence of El Niño in 2023 could lead to global losses amounting to $3 trillion by 2029. Moreover, the study highlights the potential for these losses to escalate significantly, reaching up to $84 trillion between 2020 and 2099.
El Nino & India’s Past Experience
The book “Late Victorian Holocausts” proposed that severe famines in the late nineteenth century were closely linked to the El Niño phenomenon. The devastating impact of extreme weather conditions and disrupted monsoon circulation, extensively documented by British and Indian officials, among others, resulted in significant droughts and sporadic floods during the periods of 1876-78, 1896-97, and 1899-1900.
These catastrophic events led to the loss of sixty million lives in India, China, and Brazil, while hundreds of millions endured widespread hunger, social upheaval, and political unrest. Though the detrimental effects of European colonialism and the proliferation of laissez-faire capitalism played crucial roles in exacerbating these calamities, the global phenomena of El Niño and La Niña likely intensified the severity of droughts, crop failures and malaria outbreaks. As Mike Davis writes:
“During the famine of 1899–1900, when 143,000 Beraris [people of Berar Province, Hyderabad] died directly from starvation, the province exported not only tens of thousands of bales of cotton but an incredible 747,000 bushels of grain. Despite heavy labor immigration into Berar in the 1890s, the population fell by 5 per cent and ‘life expectation at birth’ twice dipped into the 15 year range before finally falling to less than 10 years during the ‘extremely bad year’ of 1900.”
Shifting towards a more recent timeframe, since 1950, India has experienced 21 El Niño years, coinciding with 15 drought events. Notably, ten of these fifteen droughts were associated with El Niño occurrences. Analyzing historical data reveals that the probability of below-normal rainfall is nearly seventy per cent during strong or moderate El Niño events, indicating a heightened risk of poor monsoon rainfall.
However, it is essential to note that not all El Niño years result in below-normal monsoons. Past data indicates that, despite El Niño conditions, southwest monsoon rainfall has been within the normal range due to favourable offsetting factors. These factors have contributed to maintaining adequate rainfall levels during the southwest monsoon season, even during El Niño years.
Overall, while El Niño events pose a significant risk to rainfall patterns and drought occurrences in India, historical records demonstrate that other factors can counterbalance the influence of El Niño and maintain normal monsoon rainfall levels during the crucial southwest monsoon season.
To sum up, to mitigate the impact of El Niño, India can adopt effective solutions by implementing contingency plans at the district level. Initiating the introduction of late-sowing seed varieties better suited to withstand erratic rainfall patterns, focusing on water conservation and management, and monitoring the monsoon while preserving natural water bodies can significantly transform the agricultural industry and enhance its resilience in the face of challenges.
Furthermore, policymakers must develop protocols that reduce India’s reliance on rainfall. For instance, Maharashtra and Karnataka, which collectively contribute twenty-seven per cent of the nation’s sugarcane production, have already implemented regulations making the drip irrigation method mandatory for sugarcane cultivation in their respective states.
By implementing such measures, India can bolster its agricultural sector and reduce its vulnerability to El Niño-induced droughts. These proactive steps and innovative policies can potentially ensure a more sustainable and secure future for the country’s agricultural landscape.
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