Never, never, never believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on that strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The Statesman who yields to war fever must realise that once the signal is given, he is no longer the master of policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events…
The above quotation from Winston Churchill is worth revisiting, especially in the current geopolitical context, engulfed in war fever. In January 2025, President Trump restored, for the second time, a bust of Churchill that was in the Oval Office. The bust was made by Jacob Epstein, not to be confused with Jeffrey Epstein, whose ghost is now haunting the White House.
Churchill’s bust is next to George Washington’s, whose advice to his successors is even more pertinent as the two-hundred and fiftieth anniversary is approaching. In his 1796 farewell address, Washington exhorted Americans to set aside their violent likes and dislikes of foreign nations, lest their passions control them. He said:
The nation which indulges toward another an habitual hatred or an habitual fondness is in some degree a slave.
Twenty-five years later, President John Quincy Adams, in his farewell address, said:
Wherever the standard of freedom and Independence has been or shall be unfurled, there will her heart, her benedictions and her prayers be. But she goes not abroad, in search of monsters to destroy. She is the well-wisher to the freedom and independence of all. She is the champion and vindicator only of her own.”[Italics added.]
Today, Trump has marginalised the United States professional civil and military service by appointing personal favourites to positions of high responsibility. For example, His Son-in-law, Jared Kushner, is one of the chief negotiators involved with the Iran war. Also, Secretary of War Pete Hegseth, a former news anchor, wants to conduct a ‘holy war’ or ‘an American crusade’ against Iran.
When, on 4 March 2026, the USS Charlotte torpedoed and sank an Iranian ship, IRIS Dena, killing at least 87 sailors, Hegseth exulted and claimed that it was the first such act after World War 2.
Hegseth is wrong. The Royal Navy did it to an Argentinian ship during the Falklands War in 1982. The State Department has an office of Official Historian. Hegseth could have at least checked it out. Or, is he a believer in “alternative facts” posited by Trump’s counsellor Kellyanne Conway in 2017?
It may be noted that but for the prompt rescue operation carried out by the Sri Lankan navy, saving 238, the grim toll would have been 325. Why didn’t India, as chair of BRICS, put out a statement complimenting Sri Lanka? Why didn’t any member-state take up this matter at the U.N. Security Council? Is the rest of the world so intimidated by Trump that it does not recognise its own moral bankruptcy? The answer is clear.
Trump’s policy towards Iran is a study in his ability to be mercurial and self-contradictory.
On 5 April 2026, Easter Sunday, he threatened, in an expletive-laden post on his app ironically called ‘Truth Social’(sic), to bomb Iran to smithereens- “Power Plant Day, and Bridge Day, all wrapped up in one.” The next day, he doubled down on his threats, “a whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again. I don’t want it to happen, but it probably will.”
We cannot resist asking a question. Is Trump a follower of Jesus Christ, the Prince of Peace? Obviously, not. He is the most enthusiastic salesman for the Military-Industrial- Congressional Complex, against whose increasing political influence President Eisenhower cautioned his compatriots way back in 1961. Alas, to no impact.
Trump wants a defence budget of $1.5 trillion, a little more than the $1 trillion in interest payments on the indebted U.S., topping the list of indebted states!
Trump displayed egregious effrontery by publicly finding fault with Pope Leo XIV, who urged an end to war and the resolution of disputes through negotiation. On second thoughts, Trump sent his Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, a practising Catholic, to meet with the Pope and make amends.
Trump, however, has been skating on thin ice, getting thinner and thinner. The latest PBS News/NPR/Marist pollshows that six in ten Americans disapprove of how President Trump is handling Iran. Trump cannot expect a fruitful summit with Xi Jinping, scheduled for 14 May 2026, if there is no settlement.
The GCC has borne the brunt of Iran’s retaliation. The Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman (MbS) has made it clear that the U.S. bases in the kingdom should not be used against Iran. MbS did not do that out of any particular concern for Iran. He has assessed that if the war resumes, Iran still retains enough drones and missiles to seriously damage the oil and gas installations in the GCC.
Even if the war were to end tomorrow with a diplomatic agreement, the consequences of the aggression committed by Israel and the U.S. and Iran’s response thereto will have long-lasting consequences for the GCC and the rest of the world, needing oil, gas, fertiliser, and much else from the region.
The world has been deprived of about 1 billion barrels of oil over the past two months as Iran has blocked the Strait of Hormuz amid its war with the US and Israel, and even if energy flows resume, it will take time for the system to return to normal, the chief executive of Saudi oil giant Aramco says. Kuwait did not export oil in April, for the first time in thirty years.
The only person who seeks to gain from a resumption of hostilities is Prime Minister Netanyahu. At times, looking at the Netanyahu-Trump equation, we get the impression that the tail is wagging the dog.
By intensifying his attack on Lebanon, Netanyahu hopes to prevent an agreement between Tehran and Washington. Has he not defied Trump, who declared a 10-day ceasefire on 17 April 2026, which was later extended by three weeks?
What is in store for the next week, starting from Monday, 11 May?
Iran has, after deliberately delaying it, sent its response to Washington through Pakistan on Sunday. We do not know the contents of the correspondence between Washington and Tehran.
A possible scenario is that Washington agrees to release in part or in full the frozen funds of Iran, and gives assurance that neither the U.S. nor Israel will attack Iran again. Iran, on its part, agrees to restore the Strait of Hormuz to its pre-28 February state and, in negotiations that follow the ceasefire, agrees to terms slightly better than those in the 2015 nuclear deal, so that Trump can claim he has done better than Obama and revoke sanctions.
Such a settlement will be a huge blow to Netanyahu, who wants to resume the war. It is unclear whether Washington is consulting regularly with Netanyahu on the terms to be settled with Iran.
As we all know, Netanyahu started the war and succeeded in roping Trump into it. It is high time for Trump to realise that he made a mistake.
The best option for him is to declare ‘victory’ and add that he is moving on to Cuba. He can tell MAGA that, having destroyed Iran’s military capabilities, it is now necessary to stop bombing so that the Iranians can rise and bring down the regime. Meanwhile, he has corrected Obama’s mistake.
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